Grading my 2022 real estate predictions – How did I do in my “Sally English 2022 Real Estate Predictions”?
1. Mortgage rates are going up. The Fed will likely respond to inflation by raising interest rates. Mortgage rates will respond immediately. I nailed this prediction. Mortgage interest rates jumped a LOT higher than I thought they would but I was 100% correct in this prediction.
2. More houses are coming on the market in 2022 compared to 2021. The current seller’s market will shift more towards a buyer’s market. 100% correct with this prediction. Way more inventory on the market compared to one year ago.
3. Homes priced over $1,000,000 in the Atlanta market will see a dramatic cooling of buyer interest. Wealthy families see economic uncertainty on the horizon and are holding off on big-ticket purchases. Economic and pandemic uncertainty will take a toll on the luxury market. Missed this one. Atlanta’s strong job market kept the demand for luxury homes strong. I will give myself a “C” grade on this prediction.
4. Pocket listings are going to be less of a factor as sellers discover the new market requires wide market exposure for a house to achieve best pricing. YES – correct. Most homes are now listed in the MLS before matching with a buyer. A year ago houses were selling before ever being listed in the MLS
5. The best houses will continue to yield premium prices. Cream rises to the top as always. 100% correct. Atlanta’s job market is still strong and plenty of folks have the means to snap up the best houses.
6. Cash buyers entities may have had their day. Business models will need to be tweaked to stay competitive. Zillow just got out of the house buying business. Industry analysts note huge valuation errors were made when Zillow used their own Zestimate to buy houses direct from homeowners. The Zestimate overvalued the houses and Zillow was forced to sell homes at a loss. Will other iBuyers adapt? Again – 100% CORRECT. ibuyers losts hundreds of millions of dollars in a business plan that could not adapt to a changing real estate market
7. House prices will start to decline towards the end of 2022. Opportunities for first-time buyers and mom-pop investors will begin to reappear. Mostly correct but one variable puts this prediction at a “C-” grading. There are more homes on the market but many first-time buyers cant afford them because the mortgage interest rate hikes priced them out of the market. Lots of first-time home buyers are still waiting to be able to own a home.
8. Experienced and battle-tested real estate agents will have a banner year in 2022 as the need for their services becomes more prevalent. Selling a home will require more skills and negating prowess than just listing it in MLS as many agents did in 2021. B+ prediction. The high mortgage interest rates slowed down the market so much NOBODY had a banner year in the 2022 real estate market. But the best agents still had GOOD years and success.
9. A whole bunch of Range Rovers and Mercedes luxury cars with go back to the dealer or bank where they were leased or financed as real estate agents realize the robust market was more responsible for their success than any efforts they individually put into a sale. When the market gets tough – there is always a flight to quality. Lots of the smoke and mirrors agents are GONE. Experienced agents have seen these markets before and know how to navigate them. Houses still sell in a tough market – but they have to be marketed differently and good advice for home sellers is at a premium in this market.
Overall grade for my 2022 real estate predictions: A- (The C- grade on first time homebuyer predictions really pulled down my average) But graded on “the curve” I get an A+ because my colleagues thought the 2021 market would last forever.
Stay tuned for my 2023 predictions later this week.