Atlanta Real Estate Market 2012 Forecast
Home owners and home buyers are concerned about the 2012 real estate market. Many home owners are making decisions about selling their home and would like a crystal ball forecast about home values in 2012. Are they going up? WIll home values continue a decline in 2012?
Home buyers have a similar concern as they are evaluating the timing of a home purchase. Home prices are great for home buyers right now. But home buyers are wary about making a purchase now and finding out in 2012 or 2013 that home values in their neighborhood continued to decline after they made a home purchase.
I am often asked my opinion about home values. I am not an economist, politician, political analyst or fortune teller. I can analyze historical data as I have both a math and engineering degree but historical data has not been very helpful in recent years.
What can I offer to potential home buyers and home sellers? I have decided to offer my observations of trends in the micro-market I serve in Atlanta. Most of my sales activity occurs in neighborhoods convenient to Emory University and The Centers for Disease Control in Northeast Atlanta.
Sally English trends and observations for Northeast Atlanta
1. Foreclosures inside the perimeter (I-285) have peaked. We will continue to have foreclosures as a result of Atlanta job market and unemployment rates. But it is my opinion we have seen the highest volume of foreclosures for the Emory-CDC real estate market. A significant reason – stable employers in the mirco-market. Emory University, The CDC, FEMA, Mercer, VA hospital, VA Medical center, DeKalb Medical Atlanta hospital and the DeKalb School System appear to have stabilized as to employment levels. In the neighborhoods most convenient to these employers foreclosures have peaked and in my opinion will start to decline in 2012.
2. Foreclosures outside the perimeter (I-285) have NOT peaked. Still more foreclosure pain and suffering ahead for these markets. Unfortunately, this includes Tucker (30084) where I do a substantial amount of sales.
3. Price range of home values least likely to decline in 2012: $200,000 to $300,000. Anything over that is competing with a bunch of inventory in the marketplace PLUS a lot of sellers who have delayed putting their home on the market until they had a better understanding of the marketplace and home values.
4. Price range of home values most likely to decline in 2012: Their are two price ranges that fit this category in my markets.
A. If your home value is under $200,000 you will continue to compete with foreclosures in the Emory-CDC market and especially outside the perimeter where more foreclosures are on the way.
B. Second price range where home values may decline in 2012: homes priced above $600,000. So many sellers (and potential sellers who have delayed putting their home on the market) want to down size or move because of job relocation, divorce etc. Also, demographics show a large number of households are reaching retirement age and historically retirees relocate. Prediction: Way too much inventory for the market to absorb in 2012 so price decline continues in 2012.
5. Best buys for 2012: luxury homes (move ups) and entry level (first time buyer).
A. Move-up buyers will have to take a “hit” on their existing home. Price it under the market and possibly bring cash to the closing to make a sale. BUT, they can then purchase a replacement move up home at a discount. The overall result for these buyers will be a better opportunity to create equity through home ownership.
B. First time buyers will find the world is their oyster in 2012. Home buying pearls will be available in all price ranges. Shop wisely and be cautious in placing offers on properties. Do not, I repeat do not, sacrifice neighborhood just to get everything you want in a house Buy the best neighborhood you can afford and then make upgrades to the house you buy as you can afford them.
Do you need specific advice about bying or selling an Atlanta Georgia home in 2012? Call me at 770-939-3174 or shoot me an EMAIL.
atlanta, estate, forecast, market, real